Sunday, July 31, 2011

Likely Depression Soon to be "Emily"

The area of disturbed weather now 650 miles East of the Windward Islands that I first told you about yesterday appears to have organized into a Tropical Depression (even though it hasn't been "officially" classified as such by the National Hurricane Center - NHC).  Still dubbed "Invest 91" at this time, the system is shown within the yellow circled area on the recent satellite image below:

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system later today.  It appears as though the NHC is going to wait for that data before reclassifying the system to a Depression or perhaps right into Tropical Storm Emily.

Conditions are favorable for rather rapid development of this system over the coming few days, with most computer models forecasting the system to approach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  The latest computer model composite tracks are shown below:

We'll have more on this system after the Hurricane Hunter data come in later this afternoon...

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