Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Strong Tropical Wave Continues to Churn Out in the NW Caribbean...

***Update, 5:50 PM CDT:

From the "for what it's worth" department (because we're still so far out in time at this point)... Computer forecast models are converging on Texas as far as where this system will eventually make landfall on Friday Night or Saturday.  The jury is still out on what type of system we'll potentially be dealing with - but residents of Texas, particularly along the the Southern and Central coastline - should keep an eye on the latest information and forecasts regarding this system throughout the week:

If by tomorrow the system continues to exhibit the characteristics that we've seen today, I would expect the National Hurricane Center to send a plane out to investigate more thoroughly...

The thing I'm most excited about with this system is the potential for meaningful rain across a widespread area in Texas.  Lets keep our fingers crossed and say an extra prayer or two this week (while at the same time hoping for minimal impacts from any wind or storm surge)....

-------------------------------------Original post below:

The above satellite image shows a strong tropical wave (dubbed "Invest 90L") located out over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. I first posted about this system on Friday, and remarked that we'd have several days to watch it as it moves Westward.

The system took a bit of a beating when it crossed over parts of Cuba during the last 24-48 hours.  It has regained some of its organization today, with thunderstorms flaring up on all sides of the system once again.  It is currently moving toward the West/Northwest at 10-15 mph.

Since Sunday night, computer forecast models have continued to project the system moving into southern Texas or northern Mexico over this coming weekend, but the $64,000 question is:  "what will be when it gets there???"

The system is currently in a region where there is a bit more "wind shear" than we'd normally like to see for significant development.  However, as it moves out into the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days, conditions may become more conducive for development.

We'll have to keep a close eye on this system as it advances into the Gulf and toward the Mexican and/or Texas coast later this week.

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